The hidden cost of “good enough” forecasting
The uncomfortable truth is that many companies are measuring forecast accuracy at the wrong level.
While your C-suite sees strong quarterly numbers, at the supply chain execution level where service and inventory happen, forecast accuracy is much lower.
Why traditional forecasting is failing in today’s market
Your forecasting challenges aren’t unique. According to Gartner research, forecast accuracy directly impacts critical service metrics across industries. Yet, some companies still rely on historical data to predict an increasingly unpredictable future.
The problem compounds at every level:
At the executive level
- Accuracy: 77%
- Used for production planning and materials purchasing
- Creates false confidence in forecasting abilities
At the planning level
- Accuracy: 69%
- Used for inventory planning and production sequencing
- Misalignment starts to show
At the execution level
- Accuracy: 50% or lower
- Where fulfillment, deployment, and logistics happen
- Where most service issues actually occur